Where will your club finish?

The finals fate of Richmond and Jack Riewoldt is in their own hands. Picture: Phil Hillyard Source: Philip Hillyard / HeraldSun

WITH one round to go the ladder is far from settled. Matt Windley does the maths and predicts where your club will finish.

1. HAWTHORN
72pts 137.1%
R23: Sydney, ANZ Stadium

Matt says: Pretty simple equation. If Hawthorn wins it will claim the minor premiership and play against Sydney again the following week, most likely at the MCG on Friday night. If the Hawks lose and Geelong win then Alastair Clarkson's men will finish second and play Fremantle, probably at Etihad Stadium on the Saturday afternoon. Ouch. Who said there was nothing on the line in the game against the Swans?

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2. GEELONG
68pts 138.0%
R23: Brisbane Lions, Simonds Stadium

Matt says: Can still finish top, can still finish third. If Geelong defeats the Brisbane Lions it will finish first if Hawthorn loses against Sydney on Friday night. That would likely result in an MCG qualifying final against Sydney on the following Friday or Saturday. If the Cats beat the Lions but the Hawks also win then Chris Scott's men will finish second and then play against Fremantle at Etihad Stadium, probably on the Saturday afternoon. If they somehow lose to the Lions, a Dockers win would see the Cats slip to third and travel to Perth for a qualifying final the following Saturday.

3. FREMANTLE
66pts 141.8%
R23: St Kilda, Etihad Stadium

Matt says: Unlikely to shift from third. To jump to second the Dockers would have to win and hope Geelong somehow loses to the Brisbane Lions at Simonds Stadium. To drop to fourth the Dockers would have to lose to St Kilda, Sydney would have to defeat Hawthorn and those two results would also have to erase the percentage gap of 6.3 per cent between the two sides. If ladder positions remain as they are now, Fremantle will play Geelong in the qualifying final, probably at Etihad Stadium on the Saturday afternoon.

4. SYDNEY
62pts 135.5%
R23: Hawthorn, ANZ Stadium

Matt says: To finish anywhere other than fourth Sydney would have to defeat Hawthorn comfortably and hope Fremantle suffers a shock - and big - loss to lowly St Kilda. A loss to Hawthorn on Friday night would guarantee that they play the Hawks again the following week.

5. RICHMOND
56pts 121.4%
R23: Essendon, MCG

Matt says: Richmond has its week one destiny in its own hands after the big win against Greater Western Sydney. A win over Essendon this week would pretty much guarantee a fifth-placed finish - barring a huge, huge win by Collingwood against North Melbourne the following day - which would mean the Tigers will play the lucky team that steals eighth spot as a result of the Bombers' expected forfeiture. That team could be Carlton, which beat the Tigers a couple of weeks ago, or even the Kangaroos, who smashed the Tigers a couple of months ago. That team, however, could also be Adelaide, Brisbane Lions or West Coast, which would be a much better result for Damien Hardwick's men - but playing an interstate team could also mean the Tigers are punted to Etihad Stadium for their elimination final.

6. COLLINGWOOD
56pts 116.7%
R23: North Melbourne, MCG

Matt says: Collingwood appears pretty-well locked in to sixth place. A Richmond loss to Essendon on Saturday night means Collingwood will finish fifth with a win over North Melbourne. That could be a good result for the Magpies as that would - assuming they win their first final - potentially put them in the path of Sydney for a semi-final at ANZ Stadium. Finishing sixth would mean an MCG elimination final for the Pies against Port Adelaide on Sunday, September 8. The winner of that game could, if Fremantle loses its qualifying final, be headed for Perth in the semis.

7. ESSENDON
56pts 109.7%
R23: Richmond, MCG

Matt says: Unfortunately for Essendon, its gallant win over Carlton on Saturday night will probably count for nothing. The Bombers being stripped of their points would create a frantic battle for eighth spot between five sides.

8. PORT ADELAIDE
48pts 102.6%
R23: Carlton, AAMI Stadium
Matt says: Can't move of its own accord. Essendon losing points would lock Port Adelaide into seventh spot.

THE RACE FOR NINTH

9. CARLTON
40pts 107.0%
R23: Port Adelaide, AAMI Stadium

Matt says: If Essendon is out ... Carlton will make the finals with a win over Port Adelaide. If the Blues lose they can still finish eighth, but only if Brisbane Lions and North Melbourne both lose and the winner of the Adelaide v West Coast game doesn't pass them on percentage.

10. BRISBANE LIONS
40pts 89.1%
R23: Geelong, Simonds Stadium
Matt says: If Essendon is out ... Brisbane Lions will make the finals with a win over Geelong coupled with a Carlton loss to Port Adelaide.

11. NORTH MELBOURNE
36pts 120.2%
R23: Collingwood, MCG

Matt says: If Essendon is out ... North Melbourne will make the finals if Carlton and Brisbane Lions both lose and it defeats Collingwood at the MCG on Sunday.

12. ADELAIDE
36pts 103.7%
R23: West Coast, Patersons Stadium

Matt says: If Essendon is out ... Adelaide can make the finals if each of Carlton, Brisbane Lions and North Melbourne lose and it defeats West Coast. However, the Blues' loss and the Crows' win would also have to result in a four per cent swing to Brenton Sanderson's men - which is quite possible.

13. WEST COAST
36pts 99.2%
R23: Adelaide, Patersons Stadium

Matt says: If Essendon is out ... West Coast can make the finals if each of Carlton, Brisbane Lions and North Melbourne lose and it defeats Adelaide. However, the Blues' loss and the Eagles' win would also have to result in an eight per cent swing to John Worsfold's men - which is unlikely.

14. GOLD COAST
28pts 87.4%
R23: Greater Western Sydney, Metricon Stadium

Matt says: After a disappointing loss to St Kilda, Gold Coast will be desperate to finish off what has otherwise been a fantastic season with a win against Greater Western Sydney. Can't finish any higher but could be overtaken by the Dogs.

15. WESTERN BULLDOGS
28pts 83.6%
R23: Melbourne, Etihad Stadium

Matt says: The Bulldogs were gallant again against the Brisbane Lions on the weekend. The Dogs need to defeat Melbourne after suffering a shock loss to the Demons in Round 14. A Dogs win combined with a Gold Coast loss will see the club jump to 14th on the ladder.

16. ST KILDA
16pts 78.8%
R23: Fremantle, Etihad Stadium

Matt says: St Kilda gave it's long-suffering fans something to cheer about last weekend, but the task this weekend is extremely tough against a Fremantle side still in the running for a top-two spot. The Saints will finish 16th but hopefully Justin Koschitzke, Stephen Milne and Jason Blake are sent off in fitting fashion.

17. MELBOURNE
8pts 52.9%
R23: Western Bulldogs, Etihad Stadium

Matt says: Melbourne can still get the wooden spoon if it loses to the Western Bulldogs and Greater Western Sydney defeats Gold Coast.

18. GREATER WESTERN SYDNEY
4pts 51.4%
R23: Gold Coast, Metricon Stadium

Matt says: There remain two points of interest in the Giants' final game. A win against Gold Coast could hand off the wooden spoon to Melbourne - assuming the Demons lose to the Bulldogs. And Jeremy Cameron still remains in contention for the Coleman Medal despite a goalless effort against Richmond last week.

MATT WINDLEY'S PREDICTED LADDER:

1. Hawthorn 19-3
2. Geelong 18-4
3. Fremantle 17-1-4
4. Sydney 15-1-6
5. Richmond 15-7
6. Collingwood 15-7
7. Port Adelaide 13-9
8. Carlton 10-12
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9. Adelaide 10-12
10. Brisbane Lions 10-12
11. North Melbourne 9-13
12. West Coast 9-13
13. Gold Coast 8-14
14. Western Bulldogs 8-14
15. St Kilda 4-18
16. Melbourne 2-20
17. Greater Western Sydney 1-21
18. Essendon 14-8*

Which would mean ...

WEEK 1 FINALS:
Hawthorn v Sydney, MCG (Friday night)
Geelong v Fremantle, Etihad Stadium (Saturday afternoon)
Richmond v Carlton, MCG (Saturday night)
Collingwood v Port Adelaide, MCG (Sunday afternoon)

WEEK 2 FINALS:
Loser of Haw v Syd // winner of Rich v Carl
Loser of Geel v Frem // winner of Coll v P.A