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Play on ... Ahmed Saad could be banned for two years. Source: Chris Hyde / Getty Images
AHMED Saad's chances of a negative B sample on his irregular drugs test are considered close to zero, but he seems certain to play out the season.
Saad was a late inclusion against Brisbane on Saturday night amid confusion about his legal status, but he is allowed to play until an AFL anti-doping hearing.
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The B sample is likely to be tested this week, with Saad allowed to be present with a legal representative and even his own lab expert to ensure the integrity of the test.
But while the substances in some drug tests can degrade _ and tests for human growth hormones can be subject to interpretation _ stimulants like the one Saad took almost never come up with a false positive.
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The AFL's anti-doping code specifically allows for players like Saad who test positive to a `specified substance' to play until a hearing.
That AFL hearing would likely be after the season given Saad can request time to investigate where the failed test came from.
Unlike `prohibited' substances like anabolic steroids, `specified substances' are those which a player could have inadvertently taken via medicine and over-the-counter drugs.
These drugs are banned only on match days, as opposed to most steroids.
While Saad has tested positive to only a specified substance - believed to be from an energy drink - legal and drug experts say he will be lucky to escape a heavy suspension.
They point to the case of Frankston player VFL player Matt Clark as a direct precedent which ASADA and the court of arbitration would consider.
Clark was suspended by a VFL anti-doping tribunal for nine months, which ASADA successfully appealed at the Court of Abritration for the full two-year sentence.
Saad will have to explain where the positive test came from, so will need to scientifically test the energy drink he is believed to have taken.
If he could prove he bought conventional medicine which should not have contained a banned substance but was tainted or contaminated he could access a significant discount.
But if the energy drink he took had a banned substance on the label and Saad failed to exercise due care, experts believe he is set for a two-year ban.
A player's level of drug education and ability to have a supplement ticked off by doctors would also be taken into account by ASADA, which works against Saad.
ASADA rules have changed since rugby player Wendell Sailor was immediately stood down after testing positive for cocaine, then suspended for two years.
Given a player who took a contaminated `specified substance' might be able to access a penalty as small as three months, it was felt it would be unfair for them to wait as long as a year for a hearing while provisionally suspended.
St Kilda and his management refused to comment last night, but there is an expectation the player's B sample is tested within 14 days of the A sample proving positive.
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